As Major League Baseball eyes its domestic Opening Day this Thursday, the new season is set to officially get underway for 26 of its 30 ballclubs. In MVP races dominated by Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani since the turn of the decade, TWM looks at the likelihood of other players taking it in 2025. With Judge having less protection in the Yankee lineup and Ohtani setting his focus back onto pitching, perhaps these two aren’t destined to repeat. In their place are veteran talents who have been clamoring for their first MVP award for many years.
The MVP race isn’t always the best player. We’re only a couple years removed from the 2020 season which saw a player who isn’t even in the league right now take home an MVP award. Different circumstances in different years can allow players nobody would project to swoop in and win an MVP as it is just as much about opportunity as it is talent. No player that wins an MVP is a bad player, but plenty of great players end their careers without one. Its ability to have a sneaky dark horse contender in any given year is one thing that makes pre-season projections so fun, and it is likely that these picks will fall short at seasons end. But, that’s baseball, and we here at TWM are stoked for what promises to be an unforgettable season.
American League MVP: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
As the Cleveland Guardians once again try to find ways to contend, their one constant continues to be superstar third baseman Jose Ramirez. Ramirez finished top five in MVP voting in 2024 for the sixth time in his career. A switch hitter that averages only 80 Ks per season, Ramirez is a lock to play every possible game when healthy due to his skillset making him impossible to match up against. But to go alongside solid defense at a premium position and excellent bat-to-ball skills, Ramirez has continually proven that he has all five tools. In 2024, Ramirez finished one homerun and one double shy of a 40-40-40 season, as his power game expanded another level for a career-high 39 homeruns. His .279/.335/.579 slashline gave him a season above his career norms of an .856 lifetime OPS, and his 143 OPS+ relative to league-averages year-over-year saw a 13% improvement in his batting profile. While the underlying metrics suggest he was a bit lucky in 2024, seeing as his expected batting average tailed 40 points from 2023 and his exit velocity diminished, Ramirez’s career track record still speaks for itself as he finds ways to be a dominant player at the hot corner for the Guardians. On top of his knack for hits and prodigious power swing, Ramirez has established himself as arguably the best baserunner in bases, even if his steal totals don’t match an Elly De La Cruz or Ronald Acuna Jr. Ramirez’s +33 baserunning runs added puts him only behind Trea Turner since the metric was introduced by Statcast, as he takes an extra-base through his reads on the basepaths more than almost any other player in baseball.
You can read a breakdown of Jose Ramirez’s skillset written by TWM’s staff during the 2023 season here.
Other contenders:
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals: Finishing second in 2024 MVP voting, Bobby Witt has officially arrived: the best defensive shortstop in baseball posted a 9.5 WAR in 2024 on the strength of a 171 OPS+, 70% better offensively than the average baseball player. Mind-blowing defense is one thing for a shortstop, but winning a batting title and posting a near 1.000 OPS in the process immediately places them in the upper-echelon of players. Witt is now the first shortstop in MLB history to post multiple 30-30 seasons, projecting as a true five-tool player to coincide with his Gold Glove and batting crown, and has yet to hit his prime seasons.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees: You can’t have an MVP race without Aaron Judge. The discussion dominating Yankees camp right now is Judge’s lack of production in Spring Training (.129 AVG, one homerun). Yet, that doesn’t matter for a player who is chasing his third MVP award, and probably should already have three. Coming off his second near-11 WAR season in three years, a healthy Judge should once again threaten sixty homers, drive in well over 100 runs, and have an on-base higher than .400. With Judge already having two, he’d probably need an even more-impressive season than usual to garner a third. That also assumes he stays healthy, considering his two MVP years came in the only two seasons he’s played a minimum of 150 games since the start of 2018. While it’s always difficult to bet against Judge, it’s fairly easy to bet against his health, especially as he enters his mid-30s.
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners: Coming off a down 2024, the Mariners superstar centerfielder still posted a .273/.325/.409 slash in what was considered a poor season while playing premium defense at arguably the most important position on the diamond. Rodriguez is still only 24 years of age, has already posted over 16 WAR, and projects to be a five-tool player longterm. Rodriguez’s MVP case goes as the Mariners go: if the Mariners lineup can revert to 2023 form, Rodriguez should follow. However, if Rodriguez has to carry the entire brunt of the offense the way he did in 2024, it may be too much pressure for a still young hitter. That said, Rodriguez’s ceiling is likely a 30-30 year while playing gold glove caliber defense patrolling a large T-Mobile Park centerfielder. Rodriguez’s strikeout rate went up year-over-year, perhaps showing signs that a bit more patience is the key long-term.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros: Yordan’s average of a 6.8 WAR over a 162 stretch the last three seasons make him one of the most reliable bats in baseball. His season averages over a 162 in that stretch include 42 homeruns, 115 RBI, 36 doubles, and 88 walks. In the stretch, he’s hit .303 with a .401 OBP and an OPS+ 76% higher than league-average. When it comes to hitters who pride fear in the on-deck circle, perhaps nobody looms larger than Alvarez. The knock against Alvarez in the yearly MVP race is that he’s a designated hitter, however, with Shohei Ohtani becoming the first exclusive DH to win MVP last season, the seal has been lifted, and perhaps Alvarez finally breaks through this season. The contributing factor that hurts Alvarez, though, is that potent hitters such as Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are no longer in the Houston lineup, generating less protection for Alvarez.
Dark Horses: Corey Seager (Rangers), Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays), Carlos Correa (Twins), Riley Greene (Tigers), Adley Rutschman (Orioles).
National League MVP: Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs
With 2023 as his only top-five MVP finish in his career and stiff competition such as multiple multi-time MVP recipients, Kyle Tucker isn’t exactly the odds-on-favorite heading into the year. But a year removed from a 142 OPS+ in Houston should bode well for the lefty as long as he remains healthy, an issue that plagued him in 2024. Last season, Tucker was on pace for a career high in homeruns, doubles, RBI, and hits all while posting what would’ve been career highs in average, OBP, and OPS. Taking the lefty out of a right-handers dream ballpark and placing him into a windy Wrigley with a right-field basket should only increase Tucker’s offensive production. With free agency looming, an all-time great contract year could be on the horizon for Tucker. The 2024 pace doesn’t seem to be a fluke thanks to a small sample, either, as Tucker hit the ball to the opposite field 21% of the time, far higher than his 15% career-average. Tucker also saw a 7% increase in his flyball rates. These two numbers made it far more difficult to shift on him, thus the change in approach seems to have made an already very good hitter even better. In fact, his homerun rate jumping by nearly 2% from his career-norms suggest that a higher flyball rate gives credence to the theory that correlates it to a higher homerun rate. Tucker found ways to elevate the ball with power more while maintaining a strikeout rate in line with his career average, and if Chicago gets that player, wish the NL Central some luck.
With a crowded MVP field that should have numerous players performing, Tucker leading an underdog Cubs team could also provide a perfect narrative versus productive players on the Dodgers or Braves, both of whom project to make the postseason by all parties heading into the year. If the Cubs surprise, the MVP is likely his to take home.
Other contenders:
Juan Soto, New York Mets: It feels like a formality that after inking the richest contract in the history of sports this past offseason that Soto kind of has to win MVP. Still only entering his age-26 season, the Mets outfielder already has four top-ten finishes, including a second place finish to former teammate Bryce Harper in 2021, and a third-place finish this past season to teammate Aaron Judge. In his one year in the Bronx, Soto eclipsed the 40-homer threshold for the first time in his career, showing even more power as he takes his talents on a cross-borough Subway trip to Flushing-Meadows than he did the last time he had called the NL East home. He’s a lock to get on base more than 40% of the time, hit 30 doubles and a minimum of 30 homeruns. He’ll win an MVP eventually, it just doesn’t seem like his more subtle skillset will stand out in one of the more crowded fields enough to win this upcoming season.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers: There’s nothing left to say about Ohtani. He’s won three MVP awards in this decade because he is a one-of-a-kind player accomplishing one-of-a-kind things. He is objectively the best player in baseball, and its most historic of a generation, which is saying a lot for a man who has been teammates with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Clayton Kershaw, and Mookie Betts. But, with a return to the mound coming off a second Tommy John Surgery, expect a step back at the plate as he hones in on easing his way back onto the mound. Realistically, the reason he’s the only exclusive designated hitter to be tabbed MVP in baseball history is because his 50-50 season is matched by nobody, and that itself is difficult to replicate even before considering the return from Tommy John. Ohtani will be among baseballs finest players in 2025, but a fourth MVP award? Not yet.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves: On a core with 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., a potential 50-homer bat in Matt Olson, and one of the best hitters in baseball the past couple of seasons in Marcell Ozuna, Riley’s offensive prowess has escaped the purview of even the most ardent of baseball fans outside of Atlanta. Armed with a short-to-the-baseball yet compact power swing, Riley has become a pre-eminent extra-base machine. Riley could hit in excess of 35 homers and 40 doubles in any given season while being a primary run-producer in what could be the best lineup in baseball. It’s only a matter of time until Riley takes that next step, and at 28 years of age, the third baseman is eyeing 2025 as that campaign. Riley has posted at least six WAR in three of the last four seasons, and arguably hasn’t even played his best baseball.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies: As the Phillies inch ever-closer to the shutting of a window, the foundation of its proverbial house looks to win his third MVP. If the Phillies expect their aging roster to win an ultra-competitive National League East, they need their prized first baseman to not just be the 2021 MVP version of himself, but the 2015 MVP version he had been in the Capital. While he’s ten years removed from that .330/.460/.649 breakout, he’s still as reliable a hitter you’ll find in the sport. In his Phillies tenure, Harper has averaged a .285/.391/.533 line with 42 doubles, 34 homers, and a surplus of 100 RBI over a 162, aging much better than many predicted when he signed his mega-deal. The problem befalling Harper is that he’s now stuck in an inherently less valuable position and has been since his Tommy John Surgery, which in and of itself shows sign of wear and tear on his body.
Dark Horses: Francisco Lindor (Mets), Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks), Manny Machado (Padres), Zack Wheeler (Phillies).
