As Oscar voting wraps up, the campaigning for one of its wildest seasons has all-but-ended with the buzz not necessarily encompassing a beloved film through its narrative, rather creating narratives of what shouldn’t win. This year, the Oscars have nominated a body-horror that derives its inspiration from the likes of David Cronenberg and John Carpenter, a film starring an Academy ingenue that focuses on the social life of an escort, a film based off a Broadway play starring a pop-star, and a handful of films that weren’t accessible to general audiences for a vast majority of the campaign season. The two that were the most likely winners, The Brutalist and Emilia Perez, both found themselves deep in the muddied waters of controversy at the heart of voting season, while the one that feels most like a traditional Best Picture winner, a biopic on a beloved musician, drops in a time where voters seem eager to be a bit more innovative with their ballots.
In the film Conclave, one of the ten nominees for Best Picture, it follows the political process of the Pope-less Vatican. The film follows Ralph Fiennes as he uncovers controversy surround each candidate to replace the Pope, eventually having to be the de-facto winner because somebody has to. In a race such as this year where every candidate that was win-competitive at the start has too much controversy, is it realistic that Conclave could find its way as the winner due to its relatively safe subject matter?
Exploring the volatile race for Best Picture has a lot to look at. Should the use of artificial intelligence to aid the performances of acting nominees Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones hurt the film more than them? Realistically, yes, as Best Picture is the only award that uses a preferential ballot. It’s likely that those who care will put The Brutalist at the bottom of their rankings and, for example, A Complete Unknown as their first choice, ultimately giving the film a far greater vote total than would be received if Timothee Chalamet or Monica Barbaro were to be voted for over Brody or Jones in their respective categories. Furthermore, those who don’t care are still likely to not change their votes for the film or its performances. Much more notably, the reception of Emilia Perez from all parties and its subsequent debacle of a campaign has far more focus and is likely to impact all thirteen of its nominations, even likely to cost it its almost-guaranteed Best International Feature victory. Yet, there are ten films, and with a preferential ballot it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that any of the ten can take home the biggest prize of the evening (Coda, Nomadland and Green Book provide recent examples of such) due to enough vote-splitting amongst the Academy, there remains a clear hierarchy of win-potential. Usually, one of the top five candidates are set to win. These, in theory, are the five that would have been nominated had the Academy not expanded the Best Picture category following snubs of The Dark Knight and Wall-E. In order of most likely to least likely to win, TWM will use the remainder of this piece to look at the five most likely of the ten nominees to take home the top prize on March 2nd.
Anora
Mikey Madison’s first attempt for an Oscar following her Scream breakout delivered in spades for filmmaker Sean Baker whose award-season has been monumental. Despite early season controversies surrounding Madison’s decision to opt out of an intimacy coordinator, controversy that seemed inauthentic and artificial even in real-time, Anora is the clear frontrunner at this point in the season despite the early buzz for The Brutalist and Emilia Perez. The only film to ever win all three of the PGA, WGA, and DGA awards (a feat accomplished by Anora) and not win Best Picture at the Academy Awards is Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain twenty years ago, meaning it’d take near-historical precedent to break for Anora to lose at the Oscars. Perhaps a bigger sign for an impending Anora victory, though, is just its PGA award. Since its inception in 1989, the Producers Guild has tabbed the same Best Picture victor as the Academy Awards on all but ten occasions. These winners include some of the biggest upsets in Oscar history, such as the La La Land-Moonlight fiasco, the Weinstein politics behind Shakespeare In Love, the infamous Crash win, and the Million Dollar Baby last minute surge for Clint Eastwood.
With nominations for Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Screenplay, and Editing, it’s likely to take at least two (Director, Editing) while having Mikey Madison behind only Demi Moore for Actress. In a just world, Madison may even be the frontrunner. In a script that more than leans into its premise following an escort who finds herself locked into a green card marriage with the son of a Russian oligarch, the crux of the movie rests with the humanization of its lead. Madison’s performance is complex, but at different points is confident or vulnerable, depending on the situation the titular Anora finds herself in and who she’s interacting with. The emotional base of the film explores the actions Anora must take to protect the marriage to escape the situation she found herself in before, even if the one she’s embroiled in as a newlywed is far worse. Anora finally breaks down as the film ends and the weight of the three week period crashes down upon her, a realization of the grief caused by ordeal. Yura Borisov’s character provided an excellent dose of comedy, keeping the film light enough for the weight to hit its viewer alongside Anora’s breakdown, enthralling and entertaining until the final climax, leaving the viewer pondering the harrow story that ultimately unfolded.
The script was shrewd enough to use the characters that don’t respect Anora out of their own personal principles to add a sense of dignity to a profession historically without one. Baker also uses innovative shots and bright fluorescence to immerse the viewer in the world of a sex work. It’s depressing, it’s hilarious, it’s pretty, it’s thought-provoking. The film deals with gender politics, self-worth, power dynamics, hustle mentality, among other subject matters rather important right now.
A big advantage for Anora’s chances is its timing. Only a year removed from Emma Stone’s win for portraying a re-animated woman-turned-escort in Poor Things, the Academy seems far more open-minded to tackling themes of sex work than previous generations. Anora, while a bit edgier than most Best Picture winners, would be the most-inspired choice by the Academy in some time.
Conclave
The film with the most-balanced acting out of an ensemble group this year comes from Conclave, whose two acting nominations of Ralph Fiennes (Schindler’s List, The English Patient) and Isabella Rossellini (Blue Velvet, Death Becomes Her) are joined by scintillating performances from acting veterans such as John Lithgow (Terms of Endearment, 3rd Rock From The Sun) and Stanley Tucci (Devil Wears Prada, The Lovely Bones). As Fiennes character is tasked with finding a replacement Pope after tragedy struck the Vatican, each candidate explored is embroiled in a unique set of controversial circumstances, leaving voting at a deadlock as people try to force Fiennes, an older Cardinal excited about his impending retirement, into accepting the duties of the Pope.
The film, an adaptation of a 2016 novel written by Robert Harris, uses the political landscape of the Catholic church to create a thriller out of its process in an ever-changing world. While films such as The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown would fall in line with historical winners, the controversy surrounding the Brutalist and the fatigue surrounding music biopics within the Academy have fostered an environment where Conclave is the de-facto safe pick. It even may become an on-the-nose winner, as Jorge Bergoglio, currently serving as Pope Francis, is currently in critical condition with pneumonia. This may lead to the first papal conclave since Pope Benedict XVI relinquished his role in the church twelve years ago. A process that the average person is unfamiliar with, this may lead to an influx of people watching the process unfold through Edward Berger’s film in the coming weeks.
Conclave has eight nominations, making it well-liked within the Academy. It finds itself as the frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Score, as well as landing two acting nominations, a nomination for Best Director, and three other below-the-line nominations.
At no point has Conclave been the frontrunner for Best Picture throughout the season, but it has maintained a certain level of prestige throughout the process while former frontrunners The Brutalist and Emilia Perez has fallen out of the race for reasons beyond their theatrical merit, films such as Anora and The Substance tackle genres that aren’t always widely-accepted by the Academy’s voting bodies, and the two films starring Timothee Chalamet just haven’t picked up momentum. The big precursor win for Conclave came on Sunday night’s SAG Awards as the film picked up Best Performance by Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture, an award that has predicted the winner of Best Picture four out of the last five times.
The Brutalist
Monumental is the word in the trailer for The Brutalist that aptly describes the three and a half hour epic. A throwback to a time in old Hollywood where grandeur before-and-after the intermission of epic proportions led the way to Best Picture victories. A movie, much like most recent Best Picture recipient Oppenheimer, looks at the impact of World War II through the lens of a singular individual.
Adrien Brody (The Pianist, Detachment) stars as Laszlo Toth in a role likely to land him his second Academy Award in as many nominations. On a budget of under $10M, director Brady Corbet brought to life one of the biggest achievements of film this decade both visually and audibly. Beyond that, its three acting nominations of Brody, Guy Pearce (Memento, The Count of Monte Cristo), and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything, Inferno) all bring unique performances to the table that breathe life into the characters and motivations in service of the immigrant story.
The film follows a refugee from Hungary as he’s been separated from his wife and niece on their flee to the United States. Toth, a famous European architect, finds skill work with construction companies before working exclusively for a wealthy industrialist that changes the life of Toth, his wife, and his niece in a story that shows the trials and tribulations of chasing the American dream. A24’s main prestige film of the year, The Brutalist seemed like a lock to win Best Picture until recently. Its $37M box office return makes it a smash hit compared to its budget, it won the Silver Lion award on the festival circuit, and won Best Drama at the Golden Globes. It’s landed ten nominations at the Oscars, likely to win for its lauded cinematography and lead actor at minimum.
Yet, right at the start of Oscar voting, it was reported that artificial intelligence usage aided the making of The Brutalist, specifically to enhance the accents of Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones. The generative AI use didn’t take anybody’s job on set, and it was likely more comparable to CGI technology that’s been around for forty years than any new technology that’s stripping artists of their work. According to the films editor, he used his own voice into the computer to alter the accents slightly. However, in an era where AI is gunning for the jobs of producers in film, it’s likely that the branch isn’t going to be overly receptive to The Brutalist, hurting its odds in a race that uses a preferential ballot. This drops the Brutalist from #1 in the race to a clear third, as shown by Anora cleaning up awards since the AI reveal.
I’m Still Here
Carried by the subtle but emotionally commanding performance from Fernanda Torres (Love Me Forever or Never, The House of Sand), I’m Still Here represents the second political thriller of our article. The film follows the true story of the disappearance Brazilian Congressman Ruben Paivas during the dictatorship of the Fifth Brazilian Republic. Most likely to win the award for Best International Feature, the film has become a hit globally as it’s garnered a box office draw of $26.4M on a budget of just $1.5M, the most financially successful Brazilian film of the decade thus far.
While it explores the family dynamics before the disappearance of the Congressman, the film focuses primarily on the matriarch of the family throughout the process of the disappearance of her husband. The third act of the film centers on the family having to relocate in the wake of the tragedy, and it’s therewithin that’s found the emotional impact of the picture. There’s an innate sadness during the entire film, yet due to how methodical the story is told, the audience doesn’t find themselves hit with it until the very end. The film isn’t necessarily unnerving in a traditional sense, but its enthralling material, acting, and pacing keeps audiences invested in a story where there really isn’t much good going on. Director Walter Salles mastered the art of the slow burn, but it’s his delicate performance from his lead that ties it together.
The lack of a Hollywood backing is ultimately what keeps I’m Still Here from being the likely winner on Sunday night, but in a world where Parasite has set the precedent that it can happen and we’ve seen multiple foreign-language films nominated in back-to-back years, it’s not exactly unrealistic. Sony Classic Pictures has ramped up their campaign throughout the season, so despite being a late-runner to the race, expect a good night at the Oscars. Torres is only the second actor of Brazilian descent to be nominated for an acting award at the Oscars, following her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, for her work on 1998’s Central Station. Montenegro’s loss to Gwyneth Paltrow is widely considered one of the biggest robberies in Academy history, giving Torres an even stronger narrative as she goes up against nominated heavyweights in Madison and Demi Moore.
Wicked
The most likely of possible winners to be embraced by general audiences, Wicked brings an unusual Oscar package to the table. For instance, Cynthia Erivo (Bad Times at the El Royale, Pinocchio) and Ariana Grande (Victorious, Don’t Look Up) both deliver career-defining performances but are likely to be passed up since they’re expected to be win-competitive next year for Wicked: For Good. Wicked found itself with a strong list of below-the-line nominations for its filmmaking, yet the director in charge of these things found himself snubbed in the Best Director category, meaning it’s unlikely that the film is going to pick up those wins.
Yet, the film reached double digits in nominations, a clear sign that it’s well-liked by the voting body. It’s found itself out of the controversy vacuum for the most part, and it’s beloved by millions. Its $730M box office attraction puts it in the same category as a Dune, Barbie or Top Gun: Maverick earlier in the decade as films that reach Best Picture status for its theatrical allure. There’s still hope that Wicked could defy Oscar expectations as much as it defies gravity, though, as historically the musical is a well-liked genre amongst Best Picture nominees. While a traditional musical hasn’t won since 2002’s Chicago, there have been ten to win Best Picture, an average of one nearly every ten years, despite the genre’s 23-year drought.
Wicked doesn’t necessarily promise to be competitive, but out of the six remaining films, it has the most nominations and the most passionate fan support behind it, making it the clear-fifth in the race.
The Remaining Five
The fascinating part of this race may be found in the five that aren’t win competitive, but are potentially taking home a plethora of the awards throughout the night. Demi Moore’s (A Few Good Men, St. Elmo’s Fire) narrative as a former popcorn actress seeing a career resurgence while taking care of Hollywood royalty behind the scenes is likely to give Best Actress to the lead in a horror movie, a genre that typically doesn’t win above-the-line awards. Coralie Fargeat’s body horror The Substance also brought a unique directorial vision and a shrewd script that calls out the standards in Hollywood that have led to an influx of plastic surgery, creating an environment where even though the nomination for Best Picture is the films biggest win, it could actively take home awards. Emilia Perez’s awful audience reception and subsequent self-sabotage from lead actress Karla-Sofia Gascon makes it the least likely Best Picture winner, yet there’s a reason it played well enough with voters to generate 13 nominations. Zoe Saldana (Guardians of the Galaxy, Avatar) will likely see a career in blockbusters pay off in this years Netflix prestige film with a win for Best Supporting Actress. All the while, A Complete Unknown’s eight nominations make it stronger than that of Chalemet’s other offering, Dune 2, which landed four additional below the line nominations and is expected to win zero of them despite its overwhelming popularity. Nickel Boys, a drama that used a first-person camera technique to tell its story of an abusive Florida-based reform school in the 1960s, nabbed only a screenplay nomination, making it the weakest of the bunch heading into the ceremony.
The Academy Awards are set to air on ABC and simulcast on Disney+ and Hulu on Sunday, March 2nd at 8PM. TWM+ will follow the ceremony live, in real time, with results.
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