Hello and welcome to another edition of our presidential election series. Today, we’ll dive into the election of 1948, a race marked by four distinct candidates, a deeply divided political party, a president with seemingly slim chances, and a dramatic outcome that some have called the greatest upset in presidential election history. Did Dewey really defeat Truman, as the media announced?
The VP Turned Accidental POTUS
As discussed in our 1944 election article, FDR was re-elected for an unprecedented fourth term, with Harry S. Truman becoming the 34th Vice President. However, Truman served as VP for only 82 days before FDR passed away on April 12, 1945, due to a cerebral hemorrhage, just months into his term.
Later that very same day, Truman was sworn in as the 33rd President of the United States. Many questioned how this Missouri Senator, who had never aspired to be Vice President, could follow one of America’s greatest presidents.
Truman faced enormous challenges. He had to oversee the final stages of World War II as Japan continued to fight, despite the surrender of Germany and Italy. To end the war, Truman made the controversial decision to use atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, leading to Japan’s surrender on September 2, 1945, and the conclusion of World War II.
After the war, Truman dealt with the emerging Cold War and the Soviet Union, while also proposing aid for war-torn Japan and European nations. Domestically, he tackled issues like inflation, union strikes, and shortages of essentials. However, the Republican Party’s success in the 1946 midterm elections made it their mission to block Truman’s legislation, causing his approval rating to plummet to about 36% and leaving many believing his chances for re-election were slim.
Give ‘Em Hell, Harry!
Despite Truman’s poor approval ratings, many in the Democratic Party tried to persuade someone else to run for president, including famed World War II General Dwight D. Eisenhower. Truman reportedly offered to run as Eisenhower’s running mate if General Douglas MacArthur ran as the Republican nominee. Eisenhower, however, declined to run for either party in January 1948.
With Eisenhower out of the running and no strong challengers within the Democratic Party, Truman attended the Democratic National Convention, where he secured the party’s nomination. He chose Alben Barkley, the former U.S. Senator and Senate Minority Leader from Kentucky, as his running mate.
Truman’s campaign platform included desegregating the military and advancing civil rights for African Americans, which alienated some within his party. Truman famously criticized the 80th Republican Congress as the “Do-Nothing Congress” for failing to pass needed legislation. He called Congress back into session on July 26, 1948, to push for his agenda, a move that exposed the GOP’s hypocrisy and ineffectiveness.
Election of 1948: Rise of the Dixiecrats
While Truman secured the Democratic nomination, the party itself was fractured. The more liberal and conservative wings broke away in protest of Truman’s platform. Southern Democrats, frustrated with Truman’s civil rights stance, left the party in large numbers. South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond orchestrated the walkout and delivered a historic 24-hour filibuster against civil rights in 1957.
These Southern Democrats formed the States’ Rights Democratic Party, or Dixiecrats, which was even listed as the Democratic Party on ballots in several states. They nominated Strom Thurmond for president and Fielding Wright, Governor of Mississippi, as his running mate. The Dixiecrats’ strategy aimed to capture enough Southern electoral votes to prevent either major candidate from winning outright, hoping to force a decision in Congress.
Henry Wallace’s Progressive Election of 1948
As the Democratic Party was split by Thurmond and the Dixiecrats, it was also divided on the left by former Vice President Henry A. Wallace. Wallace, who had been removed from the 1944 ticket due to concerns over his liberal views, announced his independent run for president on January 5, 1948. He led a new Progressive Party, which included notable supporters and celebrities like Ava Gardner and Katharine Hepburn.
The Progressive Party platform called for peace negotiations with Russia, nationalizing corporations, civil and women’s rights, expanded welfare, and improved health insurance. Despite this support, Wallace’s campaign faltered due to his overly liberal platform and allegations of Communist sympathies, especially amid the Cold War and the Red Scare.
The Return of Thomas Dewey
With the GOP back in control of Congress, many Republicans were confident of victory in the 1948 election. Thomas Dewey, who had been the party’s frontrunner, secured the nomination after a competitive race against Arthur Vandenberg, Robert Taft, Earl Warren, Douglas MacArthur, and Harold Stassen.
Dewey’s campaign, led by Herbert Brownell Jr., made strategic deals to ensure his nomination. Dewey chose Earl Warren as his running mate. With Dewey and Warren leading the GOP ticket, and with the Democratic Party divided, many believed Dewey would win. Polls predicted a comfortable victory for Dewey, with some estimating a lead of 5-15 points.
Prediction Polling and the Role of the Media
Prediction polling was not new, but the 1948 election became famous for how these predictions shaped the narrative. Pollsters overwhelmingly predicted Dewey would defeat Truman. The Gallup Polls, known for their accurate predictions in 1936, forecast Dewey’s victory. Newspapers, magazines, and radio personalities were confident in Dewey’s win, with the Chicago Tribune famously printing thousands of papers with the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” before the election results were finalized.
Election of 1948: Campaigns
Each candidate had a unique campaign strategy. The Dixiecrats aimed to secure enough Southern states to deadlock the election. Wallace’s campaign tried to appeal to both the South and Northern liberals but faced challenges due to his radical platform and allegations of Communist ties. Dewey and Truman traveled across the country, with Dewey playing it safe and Truman aggressively criticizing the GOP and Congress.
Truman benefited from an improving economy, with unemployment decreasing and federal spending reductions. Despite his lagging poll numbers and a perceived disadvantage, Truman’s campaigning and the evolving economic situation helped him gain momentum.
Election of 1948 Results
In a surprising turn of events, Harry S. Truman won the election, securing 303 electoral votes and 49.6% of the popular vote. Thomas Dewey received 189 electoral votes and 45.1% of the popular vote. Truman’s victory defied the predictions and was one of the greatest upsets in presidential election history. Truman famously held up a Chicago Tribune newspaper with the erroneous “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline, showcasing his triumph.
The Dixiecrats finished third with 39 electoral votes and 2.4% of the popular vote. Henry Wallace and the Progressive Party came in fourth, with no electoral votes and 2.4% of the popular vote. And that concludes our look at the election of 1948, where Harry Truman overcame the odds to secure his presidency and achieve one of the most unexpected victories in U.S. history.
